Subject: competitive analysis report - us terrorism attacks
the enron building is being evacuated . however , we will be updating this very tragic and volatile situation regularly . contacts :
robert johnston -
x 39934
cell : 713 - 594 - 7995
clay seigle
x 31504
cell : 713 - 875 - 8778
brendan fitzsimmons
x 54763
cell : 832 - 455 - 5887
1 . us is under attack . we are in state of emergency . casualties are likely to be in the thousands . two us " critical infrastructures " - - transportation and finance - - the cornerstones of the us economy have been severely damaged .
2 . discount all gossip . responsibility will be put on many groups and many groups will claim responsibility . there are no facts at this time .
3 . nonetheless , there are a limited number of terrorist groups that could coordinate an attack with this many targets and this level of sophisticaton . indeed , it is likely that a state sponsor of some kind would be required to provide financial and intelligence support for such an attack .
4 . it is virtually certain that these groups or countries are based in the middle east . it is almost equally certain that a massive us response against a middle eastern target is forthcoming . there will be enormous domestic political pressure on the bush administration for a vengeance attack . this will be at least partially offset by a reluctance to further inflame arab radicalism in the middle east and persian gulf .
5 . as mentioned above , in addition to the horrendous human cost , there are economic and market consequences :
oil - ipe and nymex are closed . oil futures will of course react strongly to the dramatic uptick in middle eastern uncertainty .
equities - general flight to quality . investors are selling equities and putting funds into cash . many major brokerages and trading firms have been wiped out in the wtc collapse . it will take some time - - days or weeks - - for these firms to restore operations .
currencies - swiss franc and us dollar will benefit from flight to quality .
shipping - major ports and border crossing closed , surrounding areas jammed with traffic . impact on all commodities - - steel , lumber , pulp / paper , crude / products shipments , lng , etc . ships at sea will back up , affecting pipeline deliveries . freight impacted by road chaos in major us cities .
metals - gold / platinum benefit from flight to quality .
we will update as soon as we get information .