Subject: california update 08 . 22 . 01
though announced yesterday that davis and the assembly democratic leadership had cut a deal on an mou for edison , considerable uncertainty remains :
the legislative language describing " the deal " still has not been released . ( we ' ll get the details out just as soon as they are available . )
of the provisions rumored to be in the deal , burton ( democratic leader in the senate ) has said publicly that spreading the utility undercollection over customers 20 kw and higher is a " nonstarter in the senate " . ( the senate bill forces 500 kw - and - above customers to pay for edison ' s undercollection ( which amounts to about 3600 customers behind edison . wall street has said that 3600 customers is insufficient to securitize the undercollection . ) .
unless the costs are spread across 20 kw - and - above customers , business is likely to oppose the bill strongly .
business may also oppose the bill if it doesn ' t provide for " meaningful " direct access and self - gen , but at this point business seems to care more about spreading the undercollection than direct access .
there is no indication yet that davis and the democratic leadership in the assembly have convinced a majority of assembly democracts to vote for the deal ; but davis is pushing very hard and the assumption is that he ' ll get the votes in the assembly if he continues to push .
however , given burton ' s comments , it ' s unclear whether the senate goes along , even if davis manages to push something through the assembly . but if davis and the assembly want it badly enough , the likelihood is that they will pass a bill that meets burton ' s requirements and that burton will move through the senate .
bryson , ceo of edison , has said publicly that he doesn ' t know whether the deal will make edison solvent .
consumer groups are strongly opposed to any deal for edison , saying 1 ) bankruptcy ' s the best answer and 2 ) they will run " the mother of all ballot initiatives " to roll back any " bailout . "
as of 1 : 06 pm cdt , pcg is trading at 16 . 47 ( down 0 . 07 ) ; edison ' s trading at 13 . 94 ( down 0 . 07 ) .
best ,
jeff