Subject: western update 8 / 20 / 01
market update
a pair of new pacific northwest power plants is coming online this month . the klamath cogeneration project in klamath falls , oregon , will start feeding 486 mw of electricity to the region ' s power grid . an additional 270 mw are expected to come online this month from rathdrum power , a natural gas - fired plant near rathdrum , idaho . all told , nearly 1 , 240 new mw of power are expected to be buzzing through the region ' s grid by the end of the year , marking the first major steps toward erasing the northwest ' s estimated 3 , 000 mw power deficit .
aluminum smelters ( dsi ' s )
alcoa aluminum
alcoa ' s intalco smelter are negotiating with individuals within bc hydro to serve as an alternate electricity seller . bc hydro individuals are kelly lail , manager of resourcement management , ray olegaard ( title unknown at this time ) ; and mike costello , president and chief operating officer of bc hydro .
there is considerable interest by wall street analysts regarding this deal , which has implications on both the aluminum and electricity industries . this interest is making it more difficult than it ordinarily would be to get information on this target , but we will continue to research this .
kaiser aluminum
kaiser aluminum is still on the ' outs ' with bpa after having been the worst bidder in the load reduction agreement sweepstakes a few weeks ago . power prices will have to continue sliding into the low - to - mid $ 30 ' s before kaiser will be able to resume smelting operations . we are still under the belief that kaiser is bringing back employees to its smelters in an effort to realize ' shareholder value ' to affect potential m on the other hand , california claims that bc hydro was part of the scheme of market manipulation and $ 8 . 9 billion in overcharges by energy suppliers . it looks like the minister of energy , richard neufeld , and others are favoring a plan to work out a financing plan or a way to forgive california of the $ 290 million debt .
recent estimates indicate that at current power generation levels , british columbia will be a net importer of electricity in 2007 . officials are looking to put together an extensive plan that will combine off - shore drilling , a streamlined bc hydro , and improved us - canadian natural gas and oil transmission pipelines with a look toward alleviating this growing need . under the bc liberal administration , alternative power sources such as wind power are unlikely to receive much attention - indeed , neufeld has already moved to downplay the cost - effectiveness of wind and solar power , a clear indication that fossil fuels will play a considerable role in the future of bc energy activities .
bc hydro
bc hydro has selected a new chairman and ceo , larry bell . upon taking the position , bell was immediately hit with a blizzard of criticism from the remnants of the ndp on the left . mr . bell is currently sweeping bc hydro with a mandate to deregulate segments of the business - at least two major areas of hydro operations are now looking like they will be farmed out to the private sector : information technology and transmission lines . our contacts have suggested that potential bidders for hydro ' s transmission system are beginning to put their bids together due to the rapidity with which bell is expected to move . it is likely that bell will look to maintain hydro ' s core business of power generation and keep powerex , the trading arm , of the organization .
bpa
spill - related issues
bpa reservoirs are currently at 58 . 2 maf , far below the 100 maf that is typical for this time of year , but enough to meet current bpa load requirements . bonneville has not been aggressively spilling water for salmon this summer ; they anticipate their decision not to spill , coupled with load reduction agreements with dsi ' s , have put them on solid footing for this winter . however , we should not expect bpa to be moving to secure any new contractual agreements soon ( it is more likely that they want to get out of existing contracts ) .
ed mosey , spokesman for bpa has said , " we are in pretty good shape . we ' ll have enough water to meet our firm load requirements , but there won ' t be any surplus to sell . "