Subject: lme turnovers fall , long - established trend halted - reuters ( eol
mention )
uk :
lme turnovers fall , long - established trend halted .
07 / 03 / 2001
reuters english news service
( c ) reuters limited 2001 .
london , july 3 ( reuters ) - first - half volumes on the london metal exchange
( lme ) fell nearly 16 percent from year - ago levels amid signs that years of
rising turnover on the world ' s largest non - ferrous metals market may be coming
to an end .
traders said this year had seen volumes affected by the general downturn in
global economies , weakening prices and the knock - on impact of electronic
screen trading .
" the problem is the general conditions that are prevailing at the moment - we
are seeing recessionary signs that are dampening the market . it is cyclical ,
and that is the worry because the cycle is lasting some time , " one said .
figures released on tuesday by the lme showed that total futures and options
turnover during jan / june 2001 fell to 29 . 899 million lots , down from a
jan / june 2000 level of 35 . 440 million .
traded options turnovers were significantly lower , falling to 1 . 481 million
lots from 2 . 784 million as reduced volatility deterred options interest .
although the lme derives much of its liquidity from speculators , the bulk of
its trade comes from the metals industry - hedging and price protection .
" there is consumer and producer business around , but they are very selective
at the moment , " another trader said .
whether the trend continued throughout the year amd marked a sea - change after
some 10 years of almost uninterrupted volume growth may depend on market
conditions improving .
most of this year has seen prices progressively weaker , with copper recently
at its lowest since july 1999 , zinc and tin at levels last seen nearly eight
years ago , lead at a 12 - month low - point and nickel and aluminium at two - month
lows .
although prices have been softer , there have been occasions when tightness has
prevailed in some markets , lifting spot premiums , but these do not generate
trades .
" these squeezes that have taken place this year in copper , aluminium and tin
in particular have not helped , " the second trader said .
when the market moves from contango , when nearby prices are cheaper than
forward , into backwardation , which is the opposite , hedging dries up .
the last year has also seen electronic trading take off , with competitors such
as enron online and spectron metals grabbing business . the lme has also
sanctioned and launched its own system - known as lme select .
these still trade lme contracts , so the turnovers are not directly hit , but
screen - trading itself may be a factor .
" in some ways the screens , whoever they belong to , may be the problem , " one
said .
" in the old days , you used to talk to people more , get a feel for the market ,
and take a punt . not so much now - the big boys still chat , but not as much ,
and with the screens it is almost a ' matched bargain ' situation , " he said .
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