An Artificial Stock Market

Dr. Blake LeBaron
University of Wisconsin-Madison Department of Economics
Santa Fe Institute
blebaron@facstaff.wisc.edu

2:30 pm Fri. Dec. 9 in 2310 Computer Sciences and Statistics Bldg.

In this project an artificial stock market provides an environment in which to study the behavior of many artificially intelligent agents trying to forecast the future behavior of a traded asset paying a random dividend. The objective is to understand some of the phenomena possible from the interactions of learning algorithms brought together in a simple stock market trading environment. Traders using Holland's classifier systems build up sets of simple rules to forecast future stock market price behavior. Successful rules are strengthened and used more frequently while less successful rules are replaced with new rules created by a genetic algorithm. The relationship between this model and traditional modeling of financial markets in economics will be discussed.